NBA Projections
Model projections for game outcomes, player stat lines, betting edges and season futures — rebuilt every day.
Projected Leaders
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The Statz model rates every NBA team on pace and efficiency, adjusts for who they have played, and turns that into the tools below. Projected scores and win probabilities for every upcoming game. A full projected stat line for every rotation player, with a floor and a ceiling rather than a single number. Player props priced against the market, with the bookmaker's margin removed, wherever a book has posted a line. Championship futures from the live outright board. Every figure is built from game logs and market prices — none of it is a gut call. Use the rail to jump straight to a tool, or scroll for the pick of each one.
Frequently asked
Each team carries a pace and efficiency rating built from its game logs and adjusted for the opponents it has faced. Those ratings drive a game model that produces a projected score, a win probability and a spread and total. Player projections come off the same engine, distributing a team's projected possessions across its rotation by recent usage and minutes.
Daily. The NBA plays most nights, so game and player projections rebuild ahead of each slate, and prices refresh through the day as books move their lines.
On Prop Picks and Best Bets, value is what a price is worth: our chance of the pick winning, multiplied by the decimal price, minus one. Our chance starts from the bookmaker's probability with its margin removed and moves only part of the way towards the model. Positive value means the price is longer than it should be; it is not a guaranteed winner.
The middle number is the projection; the two either side are a floor and a ceiling. A high-usage starter with settled minutes has a narrow band, while a rotation player whose role swings night to night has a wide one. The band is the honest part — a single number hides how uncertain a projection actually is.
Yes. Model Accuracy grades every projection once the game is final and reports the error by stat and by confidence band, including the runs that went badly.