NBA Game Projections
Projected score, win probability and our spread and total for every upcoming game.
Tuesday 20 October
- Projected score, spread and total for every game
- Win chance against the market line
- Player projections for every rotation player
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Every game on the schedule, priced by the model before tip-off. Each card carries a projected scoreline, a win probability for both sides, and the spread and total those imply — shown against the book's number wherever one has been posted, so the disagreement is visible rather than buried. Projections are forward-only: once a game is final it moves to Model Accuracy, because a graded result is a track record question, not a projection.
Frequently asked
The margin the model expects, expressed the way a book would quote it. A projected spread of -4.5 for the home team means the model has them winning by four and a half points on average across the outcomes it simulates.
Usually because they weight recent form, rest and injuries differently. A gap is not automatically an edge — books move on money as well as on merit — but a persistent gap in one direction is where the model thinks value sits.
As far as the schedule and the data allow. Games close to tip-off carry the most reliable numbers because injury and rest news is in; a projection a fortnight out is a starting point, not a finished price.